What Associations Can Learn From the 2016 Election Polls

The press and the nation were stunned this week when Donald Trump was elected President despite having been behind in the polls.

Could an association be stunned by the results of a new program based on results of a member survey in the same way? Yes, it is possible. A few things to keep in mind:

• Do you have a representative sample? All too often, associations go to the same active members for advice and forget about the very quiet majority. The results can be skewed if the quiet members do not agree with the vocal. Perhaps some of our pollsters were not getting a representative sample of the country.

• Are your members being honest? People sometimes respond the way they think an association wants them too. I've been guilty of this. I found myself being gentler on a recent ASAE survey because I didn't want to be too negative about a specific program offered by my professional association home. Perhaps some being polled during the election cycle didn't want to admit that they weren't in agreement of the candidate being touted on the news as the favorite.

• Are you making sweeping assumptions based on little margin? Let's face it, neither candidate led a poll by more than a few points. The margin of error may have been greater than the pollsters wanted to admit. Associations need to be aware that split decisions are exactly that. If 53% say they want a program or a change, that means that 47% may not. If you aren't sure what the margin of error is in your survey, you may want to be cautious about making sweeping changes based on a slim margin.

• Are you spinning the findings? Most data can be looked at as negative or positive depending on how it is interpreted. Some in the press have said they saw what they wanted to see in the polls. Associations may spin survey data by proclaiming "60% love our program!" in order to justify a decision. However, if they want to eliminate a program they can also state "40% think our program needs to be redesigned." This can work in an association's favor, but be aware of rose-colored glasses as well.

I remain a huge fan of decision-making based on data. Just remember that opinion data is but one piece of the puzzle. Understanding your members actual spending or participation patterns or probing keeping into why they think a certain way can give you additional pieces of the puzzle to give context to the opinion data.

This post was developed for The Moery Company, www.moerycompany.com, where Patty Leeman serves as Chief Analyst.